Monday, September 2, 2013

Ravens Game Will Speak Volumes About 2013 Broncos Team

I watched both the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals Preseason Games but nothing that happened in them inspired me to write anything. The 3 most notable performances in the 4 games were turned in by Julius Thomas, Duke Ihenacho and Brock Osweiler. So if I could sum up the Broncos 2013 Preseason campaign and predict the outcome of the Baltimore Ravens Game and the early strengths and weaknesses of the team I’d say this.

ON OFFENSE

I think almost everyone would agree the Broncos are going to be very adept at airing the ball out. As long as Peyton Manning doesn’t get injured and the Offense Line can protect him, the Broncos should be able to move the ball up and down between the 20’s. On paper he has some of the best Receivers in the game to chuck the ball to in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. Julius Thomas at Tight End is an exciting prospect; he was one of the few new players on offense in the preseason that stood out and he’s won the starting job.

The challenge will be how well Manning and the offense can score consistently in the Red Zone. If it can be done through the air great but if it must be done on the ground can they punch the ball in the end zone inside the 20 or inside the 5 yard line?

LT Ryan Clady, LG Zane Beadles and RT Orlando Franklin the 3 strongest OL for the Broncos should be fine to block in the running and passing game. The question will be will new Center Manny Ramirez and RG Louis Vasquez come together and make them a line that can play smash mouth or an aerial circus type of game?

With Willis McGahee no longer in the backfield I’m just not convinced they’ve found a suitable replacement for him. He run with power between the tackles and could steamroll defenders in short yardage situations. In the preseason the only runner that exhibited any tackle breaking ability was C.J. Anderson in the first game and he’s out with a knee injury.

Montee Ball didn’t get a lot of carries in the preseason and didn’t really prove if he’s that kind of a bruising runner or not. At Wisconsin he put up some big numbers but sometimes RB’s who’ve had success in college don’t translate that success to the NFL. The reason is simple, the defenders in the NFL are stronger, faster and better tacklers than the ones they faced at the college level.

I’m not down on Ball at all and this doesn’t mean I’ve written him off before the season even starts. I think it’s possible that John Fox used him sparingly on purpose to save him for the regular season. Let’s hope that is the case and once he gets his start against the Ravens he’ll showcase his skill set and be the primary RB for the Broncos.

As for Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno they can be nothing more than role players. I’ve written in pass blogs why I believe this is to be the case so I won’t elaborate on these 2. 

ON DEFENSE

It can’t be overstated enough how bad the 6 game suspension of Von Miller will hurt the Broncos. If you combine this with the off season loss of Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos best pass rushing defensive lineman, it’s almost a back breaker.

In Miller’s place Nate Irving and the long in the tooth Shaun Phillips will back up Irving in attempt to hold down the fort at the Strongside Linebacker position in his absence. Neither are as remotely as talented as Miller as pass rushers or pass coverage guys. Wesley Woodyard starts at MLB and Danny Trevathan plays the WLB. Woodyard is good tackler but Trevathan had a few misses in the preseason games I watched.

On the Defensive Line if the Broncos play the straight 4/3 Defense it’s Derek Wolfe at LDE, Kevin Vickerson at DT, Terrance Knighton at NT and Robert Ayers at RDE. Wolfe is recovering from his neck injury in the preseason and that’s good news because at this moment he’s the best pass rusher in this group. 2013 1st round draft choice NT Sylvester Williams hasn’t cracked the starting line up yet. Shaun Phillips will back up Ayers at RDE.

The Broncos defensive backfield may be the single biggest roadblock to a Super Bowl. Champ Bailey, one of the best to ever play the game and a certain Hall of Famer is now in his 15th NFL Season. While he still has football in him he doesn’t have the speed and cover skills he once had in his prime. Its unfortunate the Broncos couldn’t move him to Safety but since they don’t really have a CB that can perform better he keeps his spot on the left side. In the last 2 years Champ has been beaten for more big plays and Touchdowns than at any other time in his career. He’s backed up by Chris Harris and newly signed free agent Quentin Jammer from the Chargers.

Former Philadelphia Eagles CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was signed as a free agent this off season and starts at the other Corner. He’s an improvement but his last 2 years were relatively unproductive in Philly. In that time frame he had only 3 INT’s and the Eagles D as a whole was near the bottom of the league in every category. His backup is Tony Carter.  

Rahim Moore returns at Free Safety after having one of the worse games a player could ever have in the Ravens game last year. Let’s hope he’s regained his confidence. One of the big surprises of the preseason was how well Strong Safety Duke Ihenacho played in the preseason, so well in fact he displaced Mike Adams. This is good news because he can’t play any worst than Adams did in many key situations last year.

History has proven this time and again.
Summary:

I believe the Broncos should be able to walk away with the AFC West Title based on their offensive passing capabilities alone. Going in I’m very concerned about the RB situation and who will emerge as the go to guy. Montee Ball has to be the guy and come playoff time he’ll have to have established himself and have the game in his toolbox needed to take them to the next level. I just don’t see Hillman or Moreno being the guys they can count on in crunch time. They’ll have to score a lot of points to win games because the Broncos D isn’t as good as the one they had last year.

More concerning is how well the Defense plays early. Wolfe is the best Pass Rusher and Woodyard is the best Tackler after that you have to wonder just how well the Broncos can play against the run or pass. The Broncos secondary came apart in the Ravens game last year and it’s uncertain they’ve really improved their personnel all that much this season.

The X Factor is they have John Fox and Jack Del Rio as HC and DC respectively. With their coaching skills hopefully they’ll out scheme opponents and coach up the weaker players on D. It’ll be the key to whether or not they get out of the first round of the playoffs and make a Super Bowl run.

Thankfully we’re only 3 days away from the first step to the beginning of the journey. GO BRONCOS!!    

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