Ravens Game Will Speak Volumes About 2013 Broncos Team

I watched both the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals Preseason Games but nothing that happened in them inspired me to write anything. The 3 most notable performances in the 4 games were turned in by Julius Thomas, Duke Ihenacho and Brock Osweiler. So if I could sum up the Broncos 2013 Preseason campaign and predict the outcome of the Baltimore Ravens Game and the early strengths and weaknesses of the team I’d say this.

ON OFFENSE

I think almost everyone would agree the Broncos are going to be very adept at airing the ball out. As long as Peyton Manning doesn’t get injured and the Offense Line can protect him, the Broncos should be able to move the ball up and down between the 20’s. On paper he has some of the best Receivers in the game to chuck the ball to in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. Julius Thomas at Tight End is an exciting prospect; he was one of the few new players on offense in the preseason that stood out and he’s won the starting job.

The challenge will be how well Manning and the offense can score consistently in the Red Zone. If it can be done through the air great but if it must be done on the ground can they punch the ball in the end zone inside the 20 or inside the 5 yard line?

LT Ryan Clady, LG Zane Beadles and RT Orlando Franklin the 3 strongest OL for the Broncos should be fine to block in the running and passing game. The question will be will new Center Manny Ramirez and RG Louis Vasquez come together and make them a line that can play smash mouth or an aerial circus type of game?

With Willis McGahee no longer in the backfield I’m just not convinced they’ve found a suitable replacement for him. He run with power between the tackles and could steamroll defenders in short yardage situations. In the preseason the only runner that exhibited any tackle breaking ability was C.J. Anderson in the first game and he’s out with a knee injury.

Montee Ball didn’t get a lot of carries in the preseason and didn’t really prove if he’s that kind of a bruising runner or not. At Wisconsin he put up some big numbers but sometimes RB’s who’ve had success in college don’t translate that success to the NFL. The reason is simple, the defenders in the NFL are stronger, faster and better tacklers than the ones they faced at the college level.

I’m not down on Ball at all and this doesn’t mean I’ve written him off before the season even starts. I think it’s possible that John Fox used him sparingly on purpose to save him for the regular season. Let’s hope that is the case and once he gets his start against the Ravens he’ll showcase his skill set and be the primary RB for the Broncos.

As for Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno they can be nothing more than role players. I’ve written in pass blogs why I believe this is to be the case so I won’t elaborate on these 2. 

ON DEFENSE

It can’t be overstated enough how bad the 6 game suspension of Von Miller will hurt the Broncos. If you combine this with the off season loss of Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos best pass rushing defensive lineman, it’s almost a back breaker.

In Miller’s place Nate Irving and the long in the tooth Shaun Phillips will back up Irving in attempt to hold down the fort at the Strongside Linebacker position in his absence. Neither are as remotely as talented as Miller as pass rushers or pass coverage guys. Wesley Woodyard starts at MLB and Danny Trevathan plays the WLB. Woodyard is good tackler but Trevathan had a few misses in the preseason games I watched.

On the Defensive Line if the Broncos play the straight 4/3 Defense it’s Derek Wolfe at LDE, Kevin Vickerson at DT, Terrance Knighton at NT and Robert Ayers at RDE. Wolfe is recovering from his neck injury in the preseason and that’s good news because at this moment he’s the best pass rusher in this group. 2013 1st round draft choice NT Sylvester Williams hasn’t cracked the starting line up yet. Shaun Phillips will back up Ayers at RDE.

The Broncos defensive backfield may be the single biggest roadblock to a Super Bowl. Champ Bailey, one of the best to ever play the game and a certain Hall of Famer is now in his 15^th NFL Season. While he still has football in him he doesn’t have the speed and cover skills he once had in his prime. Its unfortunate the Broncos couldn’t move him to Safety but since they don’t really have a CB that can perform better he keeps his spot on the left side. In the last 2 years Champ has been beaten for more big plays and Touchdowns than at any other time in his career. He’s backed up by Chris Harris and newly signed free agent Quentin Jammer from the Chargers.

Former Philadelphia Eagles CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was signed as a free agent this off season and starts at the other Corner. He’s an improvement but his last 2 years were relatively unproductive in Philly. In that time frame he had only 3 INT’s and the Eagles D as a whole was near the bottom of the league in every category. His backup is Tony Carter.  

Rahim Moore returns at Free Safety after having one of the worse games a player could ever have in the Ravens game last year. Let’s hope he’s regained his confidence. One of the big surprises of the preseason was how well Strong Safety Duke Ihenacho played in the preseason, so well in fact he displaced Mike Adams. This is good news because he can’t play any worst than Adams did in many key situations last year.

History has proven this time and again.

Summary:

I believe the Broncos should be able to walk away with the AFC West Title based on their offensive passing capabilities alone. Going in I’m very concerned about the RB situation and who will emerge as the go to guy. Montee Ball has to be the guy and come playoff time he’ll have to have established himself and have the game in his toolbox needed to take them to the next level. I just don’t see Hillman or Moreno being the guys they can count on in crunch time. They’ll have to score a lot of points to win games because the Broncos D isn’t as good as the one they had last year.

More concerning is how well the Defense plays early. Wolfe is the best Pass Rusher and Woodyard is the best Tackler after that you have to wonder just how well the Broncos can play against the run or pass. The Broncos secondary came apart in the Ravens game last year and it’s uncertain they’ve really improved their personnel all that much this season.

The X Factor is they have John Fox and Jack Del Rio as HC and DC respectively. With their coaching skills hopefully they’ll out scheme opponents and coach up the weaker players on D. It’ll be the key to whether or not they get out of the first round of the playoffs and make a Super Bowl run.

Thankfully we’re only 3 days away from the first step to the beginning of the journey. GO BRONCOS!!    

Broncos should go all D in 2012 Draft

In respond to the Woody Paige column in the Denver Post on 4/15/12 entitled:

Don't mock this Broncos draft of 6 sure starters 

 Woody may be right about not taking a Defense Lineman in the first round but it can’t be denied that it’s a big position of need. If the Broncos don’t go DL in the 1st round then Alabama LB Dont`a Hightower would be a nice pick up for the Broncos because after Von Miller you have an aging DJ Williams, Joe Mays and Wesley Woodyard none of whom may be the answer. I hope Mays improves, in spots he played well and in others he didn’t. DJ had a nice comeback season and like Mays played well early but late in the season disappeared at times as did Mays.

No matter what the Broncos should nab the best defensive player available in the first round. They need help at every position on D. They could use another good Corner and Safety so that shouldn’t be ruled out. In the later rounds the Broncos could use another WR, a good receiving TE and maybe a Guard if Chris Kuper isn’t at full strength by opening day. It’s good news he’s recovering nicely from the knee surgery but one never knows how well he’ll be able to play once he comes back.

As for the RB’s situation I’ve been one of the few who’s pointed out the real weakness the Broncos have at that position since the season ended. Knowshon Moreno is a bust, a goner and while Willis McGahee had an amazing year he’s now 30 years old with a banged up body and a knee that’s been a chronic problem. Can he last another full season with that knee at his age? I don’t question his desire to do so he’s a warrior but I think its wishful thinking to believe that he’ll put up the same numbers as last year.

If Manning’s offense has any hope of succeeding in Denver he must have at least one quality RB to execute it, one that can run between the tackles and be a reliable pass catcher for him if nothing is open down field. Without some threat of a running game Manning isn’t going to be as effective in the passing game.  

Personally I prefer RB’s with more size, strength and average to better than average speed than drafting speedy super smurf RB’s. More often than not they just end up being situational players.

Oregon running back LaMichael James is listed at 5’9” and 195. Both are probably inflated numbers. He’s more like 5’8” or 5’7” 180 or 185 pounds. James had a fine career at Oregon. He’s a great Receiver and a fantastic punt returner. But once he gets to the NFL I wonder if his little body can be effective as an every down RB or one who can run between the tackles. He won’t be facing the weak defenses he played against in the Pac 12.

Ronnie Hillman of San Diego State another Super Smurf at 5’10” and listed at 190. He is fleet of foot but no bigger than Yoda.

More than likely Hillman and probably James are both going to end up as role players and not starters sort of in the Reggie Bush mold. Of the 2 James would be the better pick because he does catch the ball well. James may suprize me and put up some big numbers but those numbers will probably be as Receiver and a Punt Returner and not a RB.

Utah State's Robert Turbin 5’10” 222 recently had a work out in Denver but you have to wonder he can make the jump from another weak and meek conference like the Western Athletic Conference to the much bigger and faster NFL. Of the 3 mentioned in Woody’s piece this guy seems to have more muscle mass. He may not have the speed of James and Hillman but has a body better suited to play inside the tackles.

RB Doug Martin may be the best RB in the draft.

RB Doug Martin of Boise State might be a better pick than all 3 of these guys if he’s available. He’s a smurf too but has that compact massive frame that can run with power inside the tackles.

I just think after Trent Richardson there’s a big drop off in the level of talent when it comes to an every down smash mouth runner in combination with being a good Receiver.

The draft isn’t far away, soon enough we’ll know. Hopefully they’ll be guys that can contribute immediately because we do have some big holes to fill.

Denver Broncos "Opportunistic" D = W's

Wesley Woodyard forces Barber to fumble the game away.

3 days later the first thing that comes to my mind after the Chicago Bears game was how many people call this win just dumb luck. The other comments by Non-Broncos Fans and the NFL Pundits were that Marion Barber LOST the game for the Bears. This just isn’t true at all, while Tebow continues to draw all the media attention the Broncos D has been quietly under the radar playing some of the finest defensive games I’ve seen for 6 years. They WON the game Barber didn’t LOSE it.

What some seem to forget is that while Barber did run the ball out of bounds it was because DJ Williams forced him out of bounds. Now… should Barber of hit the deck a second sooner on that play? Yes, but if you look at the replay he was running full speed trying to run straight up the field near the sidelines and DJ pushed him out. So DJ’s hustle play forced Barber out of bounds, Barber really was in a bad position to be sure but it was a snap play and a snap decision he had to make. DJ, who should be considered one of players of the game, had 9 tackles (led the team) and 2 sacks. But the Barber hustle play alone helped to extend the game. 

What about the fumble in OT? Again…some would say that Barber fumbled the ball but what I would say was Wesley Woodyard made an outstanding defensive play by stripping Barber and causing a turnover.

If this were any other team in the league or any other defense in the league without a guy named Tim Tebow at QB maybe this would be how many might describe what happened in the 4th Q and OT. In my opinion this is what you call playing “Opportunistic” Defense. Good defensive teams create turnovers, good field position and momentum shifts. This is exactly what happened in the Bears game and has manifested itself many times during this current winning streak.

One of the important factors that can’t be overlooked was just how much Von Miller contributed to the game even though he played it with a cast on one hand. How can your teammates not get motivated when they see you flying around the field with one hand disabled and still making tackles and sacks? Miller had 4 tackles and 1 sack and his presence on the field for the Broncos D is directly and equally in proportion to Tebow leading the charge for the O.

The Broncos turnaround is 2 fold. Tebow’s passion and never say die attitude and the Broncos D playing a full 60 minutes of solid football. Tebow’s heroics are well documented but much of the success lies in a Defense that has been an amazing group of overachievers.

This week the Broncos D is going to be the difference again between winning and losing against the Tom Brady aerial show. The Broncos should easily shut down the Patriots running game. So it’s my hope that Fox gambles at every opportunity to get pressure on Brady. If he has to send 6 or 7 guys to get to him on every obvious passing play he must. He’ll have more success doing that than trying to play a conservative zone coverage game against Brady. The only way the Broncos can win this game is by bringing pressure early and often and making Brady earn every passing yard by hurrying him, knocking him down or better yet sacking him as many times as possible.

If Champ and company can keep the clamps on Wesley Welker and Rob Gronkoski, the front 7 get pressure on Brady and keep the game close the Broncos have an excellent chance of winning this game. I don’t see the Broncos O winning a shoot out no matter how horrible the Patriots D is, because Brady wins those every time.   

The best chance the Broncos have to beat the Patriots is by continuing the same formula that has brought them this far. A turnover free time consuming conservative grind it out smash mouth O and a very aggressive “Opportunistic” D will bring it home for the Broncos. I know no one outside of Denver is giving the Broncos a snowball’s chance in hell of winning this one but I see another great game and a W in the win column. You heard it here first. GO BRONCOS!!!

Turnaround on Defense Starts With Good Tackling

I can’t remember in awhile maybe since the 2005 season a better group of tacklers than this current Broncos team, at least in the last 4 games. I hope it continues because since that season the Broncos have been one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL. Recently the Ravens, Steelers and the Eagles D’s (maybe not this year, but in the not too distant past) to name a few have had great players that could tackle. Good D no matter what the scheme always starts with good tackling.

On the 2005 team for the Broncos Al Wilson and DJ Williams were both great tackling LB’s. As I remember Keith Burns was still on the team and although he wasn’t a starting LB on special teams he made his presence felt. Champ Bailey was 6 years younger then, was a fierce tackler and even though John Lynch was in the twilight of his career he could still bring the wood. The DL a long and terrible deficiency for the Broncos even on the 05 team doesn’t have any real standouts. Some might say Trevor Pryce could be but wasn’t nearly as effective as he was early in his career.

If you go back in time Randy Gradishar was arguably the best tackler of all-time. I’ve said since his retirement he should have gone in on the first ballot and been the 1st Broncos player in the Hall of Fame but that’s another rant.

Karl Mecklenberg is another guy while in his prime didn’t miss many. Say what you will about him but Bill Romanoski was one of the greatest overachievers of all time and was a hell of tackler for the Broncos. John Moberly had some good years too. Steve Atwater and Dennis Smith may have been the biggest hitters of all-time in the backfield for the Broncos along with Champ.

Getting back to today and I know I’m not telling you something you don’t already know. Von Miller is the most exciting player we’ve had on D in years. This guy knows how to tackle and doesn’t miss if he’s in range and when he gets there he brings speed, power and thump.

I’m also sure you’d all agree in large part he has to be considered the reason for the turnaround on D. What he lacks in coverage skills and sometimes not staying home in the running game (which he’ll get better at) he more than makes up for with his tackling, pass rushing ability and fierce determination. It’s amazing how one guy with his intensity level help’s inspire the other players on D with lesser talent to play at a higher level than they might not normally attain.

In the Chargers game last week the tackling and the pass rush was suburb by the whole team. A few running plays got away from them but almost every time a Charger players either run or caught a ball the first guy usually made the tackle and Rivers of course got knocked around too. It’s amazing how Miller gets a lot of attention right now but I didn’t know until I looked at the box score that DJ lead the team with 10 tackles. DJ finally realizes he’s got some good backup in Miller and has stepped up his game. Even MLB Mays has been tackling well and had some big stops. I almost forgot to mention Wesley Woodyard he leads the team in tackles.

It just refreshing to see a Broncos box score were 3 LB’s lead the team in tackles. It means that most of the running plays and the short passing game plays are being effectively stopped. It’s certainly better than seeing Champ or Brian Dawkins lead the stat sheet.  

Dumervil’s recovery can’t go unmentioned too he’s come back strong. Even Carter and Goodman tackled in the Chargers game. Bunkley has contributed too. Dawkins although long in the tooth can bring it too once in a while.

How many games have we watched over the last 5 years where on one play the Broncos would have 2 or sometimes 3 whiffs before a tackle was finally made?

Von Miller doesn’t miss, he knows how to make a text book tackle and thankfully it’s spread to the rest of the team. It’ll be interesting to see if Adrian Peterson starts for the Vikings this week; if he does it’ll be a good test to see if our D can shut down the best RB in the game. One thing is certain, offensive wins games but defense wins championships. Is this team capable of it? I don’t know but the Broncos are going to be a fun team to watch the last 1/3 of the season.