The Key to Super Bowl XLVIII for the Denver Broncos

Win it NOW!!!

NOW is time to add a 3rd to this trophy case!

The last time the Denver Broncos won a Super Bowl was in Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami against the Atlanta Falcons. In the years since the Broncos have had some good teams and they’ve made the playoffs several times but only have 3 playoffs wins to show for it. One was against the Patriots in 2006, the Steelers in 2012 and the win last week against the Chargers.

The reality is since 1999 the Broncos have had only 3 excellent opportunities to win a Championship.

The first opportunity came in 2006 when Broncos run came to an end by losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. The Broncos lost because they turned the ball over 4 times. All the Broncos lacked were a good QB. Jake Plummer folded up his tent in that game and after it his career was essentially over. By mid season of the 2007 season he lost his job to Jay Cutler.

The next best chance was last year when the Broncos had home field advantage throughout just as they did in the 2006 season. They lost to an inferior team in the Baltimore Ravens in part because of poor pass defense but also because Peyton Manning had 2 critical INT’s. The Broncos O turned the ball over 4 times. Many Broncos Fans seem to forget that part of the game and focus on Rahim Moore’s bad play that gave the Ravens a late TD. You can’t turn the ball over 4 times no matter how good or bad you’re D is and expect to win many games. You can’t expect to win games when the #1 QB in the game can’t make a play at the end of the game and expect to win either.

Without a heroic performance by Trindon Holliday and his 2 kick returns for TD’s the Broncos would have been completely blown out by the Ravens. Manning totally shrank in the cold weather of Denver, it clearly affected his game.

This year is the third great opportunity the Broncos have had to win a SB and just as in the other 2 they have home field throughout. This year the Broncos are a better team offensively than last year but on the Defensive side of the ball the team may be worse.

You can come up with every football clique to describe how the Broncos break through this year. In my opinion if the Broncos are going to beat the New England Patriots this Sunday it has to start with Manning because he’s the leader of the team and was hands down the best player in the NFL during the regular season. He must play well for 60 minutes. No matter how bad the D plays he must be able to overcome it and play his A game. The Broncos also need to slow the game down and run the ball just as much as they pass it and grind down the clock.

If the D can stop the run and force Tom Brady to throw the ball, the Broncos chances of winning increase. If the D doesn’t give up to many big passing plays that would contribute to a win as well. It’s the bend not break style of D that’ll help the Broncos advance. You’d expect Brady to make some plays but if they can limit the big ones the Broncos have a good chance.

Frankly I don’t care how they win the game as long as they win. The last few years have been football hell; the Broncos have blown too many opportunities to win another ring. They can’t blow this one. Manning maybe as one good year left and after that it could be a lifetime my friends before the Broncos have another chance as good as this one to win a Championship.

The time is NOW for Manning and the Denver Broncos

I’ve taking a hiatus from writing about the Broncos the last 3 weeks for several reasons. One was because of the holidays and two because I injured my back at work in November and I can’t set for long periods of time at the computer. And lastly because I knew the Broncos were in the playoffs. Today we know how who they’ll play, the San Diego Chargers. First a few words about Manning and his fantastic regular season performance.

Manning is the MVP of the 2013 Regular Season

Manning has had an astonishing 2 years with the Broncos. This year he racked up 5,477 passing yards, giving him 64, 964 for a career. 55 TD passes in a single season is remarkable benchmark. For a 37 year old QB to play at this high of level is unheard of. I don’t think there is any question that Manning may be the most talented, intelligent and hardest working QB in the history of the sport.

His tireless analysis of film and his 100% commitment to refine and perfect his game on the practice field is legendary. His execution of the hurry up offense, his ability to get rid of the football in less than 3 seconds and his vision down field are second to none. If Manning wasn’t playing QB in the NFL right now he’d have to be considered a great candidate to be an Offensive Coordinator and even a Head Coach for any NFL organization.

Historically Manning isn’t the same QB in the Playoffs

But… as I’ve said numerous times before, Manning has to finish the deal for the Broncos by helping the team win a Super Bowl. All the regular season success, the records, and the MVP awards are impressive but if a Super Bowl isn’t on his resume after having such a notable regular season the shine on his individual accomplishments will lose its luster. The Super Bowl is forever. I don’t care what other Broncos Fans may think of my opinion and I know it’s a team game but if he doesn’t play competently and help the team win it his tenure in Denver has to be considered a heartbreaking disappointment.

Despite Manning’s tremendous achievements this season he does have inadequacies. If you look closer at the 5,477 passing yards most of them have been of the dink and dunk variety, short passes, screen passes and the run after the catch padded that stat.

Manning can still throw a deep ball if he has time and an open Receiver but he doesn’t have the arm strength he once had. If he feels pressure or has to leave the pocket to throw he’s not as consistent a passer short or long.

The other part of his game that still is an uncertainty is his capacity to play in a cold and windy environment. Denver and East Rutherford can be extremely cold places to play football in January and February. In the cold of Denver last year against the Ravens, Manning had 2 Fumbles and 2 Interceptions. The 2^nd INT was a very costly one because it ended any chance of the Broncos winning the game.

Then there is the most significant of Manning’s statistics which is his past performance in playoff games. In his 16 year career Manning’s teams have been to the playoffs 12 times prior to this year and he has a 9-11 record. In 20 playoff appearances Manning has 21 INT’s and 32 TD’s, that’s only a plus 11. His career passing rating in the playoffs is a pedestrian 88.4 which is 10^th all time.

In 2005 and 2006 when he blew out the Jake Plummer led Broncos in the 1^st round of the playoffs both years as a Colt he lost to Brady and the Patriots (the odds on favorite team to face him in the AFC Championship this season) both years ending his Super Bowl run. Manning has 4-10 career record against Brady and 1-2 record against him in the playoffs.

Rivers thus far owns Manning and the Broncos

This weekend the Broncos face the Chargers in the second round of the playoffs. The Chargers have won 5 in a row going in and beat the Broncos AT HOME 27-20 on Dec. 12. Rivers career record against the Broncos is 10-4 and he has a 5-3 record against Manning, and 3 of those losses came last year when Manning became a member of the Broncos.

The Chargers after having a mediocre regular season have all the earmarks of being another team like the Ravens last year that got hot at the end of the season and made an improbable run at the Super Bowl. The big difference between the Ravens and the Chargers is that the Chargers have a much better QB in Rivers.

The time is NOW

Despite the statistical deficit that Manning and the team have against the Chargers NOW is the time to rise up and kill the failures of the past. Manning’s individual 2013 regular season stats will have less meaning if the Broncos are one and done. Manning must play well but it won’t be enough.

The real test in the Chargers game and the playoff games to follow will be if the Broncos Defense can play opportunistic football, tackle and cover better, get pressure on the QB and make plays in the 4^th quarter. The Broncos must be able to run the ball with Moreno and Ball consistently.

The Offensive Line that’s played excellent football this season must protect Manning and his great Receivers must haul in the catchable balls.

I’m convinced that Offense won’t be a problem but if the Broncos have to play a shootout game going into the 4th Q against the Chargers they could be in real trouble. The table is set, the road to the Super Bowl will go through Denver and I can’t wait to see what happens. I pray to the football Gods that Manning can exercise his playoff ghosts and lead the Broncos onto a Championship.