Ravens Game Will Speak Volumes About 2013 Broncos Team

I watched both the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals Preseason Games but nothing that happened in them inspired me to write anything. The 3 most notable performances in the 4 games were turned in by Julius Thomas, Duke Ihenacho and Brock Osweiler. So if I could sum up the Broncos 2013 Preseason campaign and predict the outcome of the Baltimore Ravens Game and the early strengths and weaknesses of the team I’d say this.

ON OFFENSE

I think almost everyone would agree the Broncos are going to be very adept at airing the ball out. As long as Peyton Manning doesn’t get injured and the Offense Line can protect him, the Broncos should be able to move the ball up and down between the 20’s. On paper he has some of the best Receivers in the game to chuck the ball to in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. Julius Thomas at Tight End is an exciting prospect; he was one of the few new players on offense in the preseason that stood out and he’s won the starting job.

The challenge will be how well Manning and the offense can score consistently in the Red Zone. If it can be done through the air great but if it must be done on the ground can they punch the ball in the end zone inside the 20 or inside the 5 yard line?

LT Ryan Clady, LG Zane Beadles and RT Orlando Franklin the 3 strongest OL for the Broncos should be fine to block in the running and passing game. The question will be will new Center Manny Ramirez and RG Louis Vasquez come together and make them a line that can play smash mouth or an aerial circus type of game?

With Willis McGahee no longer in the backfield I’m just not convinced they’ve found a suitable replacement for him. He run with power between the tackles and could steamroll defenders in short yardage situations. In the preseason the only runner that exhibited any tackle breaking ability was C.J. Anderson in the first game and he’s out with a knee injury.

Montee Ball didn’t get a lot of carries in the preseason and didn’t really prove if he’s that kind of a bruising runner or not. At Wisconsin he put up some big numbers but sometimes RB’s who’ve had success in college don’t translate that success to the NFL. The reason is simple, the defenders in the NFL are stronger, faster and better tacklers than the ones they faced at the college level.

I’m not down on Ball at all and this doesn’t mean I’ve written him off before the season even starts. I think it’s possible that John Fox used him sparingly on purpose to save him for the regular season. Let’s hope that is the case and once he gets his start against the Ravens he’ll showcase his skill set and be the primary RB for the Broncos.

As for Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno they can be nothing more than role players. I’ve written in pass blogs why I believe this is to be the case so I won’t elaborate on these 2. 

ON DEFENSE

It can’t be overstated enough how bad the 6 game suspension of Von Miller will hurt the Broncos. If you combine this with the off season loss of Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos best pass rushing defensive lineman, it’s almost a back breaker.

In Miller’s place Nate Irving and the long in the tooth Shaun Phillips will back up Irving in attempt to hold down the fort at the Strongside Linebacker position in his absence. Neither are as remotely as talented as Miller as pass rushers or pass coverage guys. Wesley Woodyard starts at MLB and Danny Trevathan plays the WLB. Woodyard is good tackler but Trevathan had a few misses in the preseason games I watched.

On the Defensive Line if the Broncos play the straight 4/3 Defense it’s Derek Wolfe at LDE, Kevin Vickerson at DT, Terrance Knighton at NT and Robert Ayers at RDE. Wolfe is recovering from his neck injury in the preseason and that’s good news because at this moment he’s the best pass rusher in this group. 2013 1st round draft choice NT Sylvester Williams hasn’t cracked the starting line up yet. Shaun Phillips will back up Ayers at RDE.

The Broncos defensive backfield may be the single biggest roadblock to a Super Bowl. Champ Bailey, one of the best to ever play the game and a certain Hall of Famer is now in his 15^th NFL Season. While he still has football in him he doesn’t have the speed and cover skills he once had in his prime. Its unfortunate the Broncos couldn’t move him to Safety but since they don’t really have a CB that can perform better he keeps his spot on the left side. In the last 2 years Champ has been beaten for more big plays and Touchdowns than at any other time in his career. He’s backed up by Chris Harris and newly signed free agent Quentin Jammer from the Chargers.

Former Philadelphia Eagles CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was signed as a free agent this off season and starts at the other Corner. He’s an improvement but his last 2 years were relatively unproductive in Philly. In that time frame he had only 3 INT’s and the Eagles D as a whole was near the bottom of the league in every category. His backup is Tony Carter.  

Rahim Moore returns at Free Safety after having one of the worse games a player could ever have in the Ravens game last year. Let’s hope he’s regained his confidence. One of the big surprises of the preseason was how well Strong Safety Duke Ihenacho played in the preseason, so well in fact he displaced Mike Adams. This is good news because he can’t play any worst than Adams did in many key situations last year.

History has proven this time and again.

Summary:

I believe the Broncos should be able to walk away with the AFC West Title based on their offensive passing capabilities alone. Going in I’m very concerned about the RB situation and who will emerge as the go to guy. Montee Ball has to be the guy and come playoff time he’ll have to have established himself and have the game in his toolbox needed to take them to the next level. I just don’t see Hillman or Moreno being the guys they can count on in crunch time. They’ll have to score a lot of points to win games because the Broncos D isn’t as good as the one they had last year.

More concerning is how well the Defense plays early. Wolfe is the best Pass Rusher and Woodyard is the best Tackler after that you have to wonder just how well the Broncos can play against the run or pass. The Broncos secondary came apart in the Ravens game last year and it’s uncertain they’ve really improved their personnel all that much this season.

The X Factor is they have John Fox and Jack Del Rio as HC and DC respectively. With their coaching skills hopefully they’ll out scheme opponents and coach up the weaker players on D. It’ll be the key to whether or not they get out of the first round of the playoffs and make a Super Bowl run.

Thankfully we’re only 3 days away from the first step to the beginning of the journey. GO BRONCOS!!    

Seahawks Slaughter the Broncos in PSG #2

Not to sound like a broken record but why is the NFL still thinking 4 preseason games are a good idea? Derek Wolfe, one the most promising young Defense Linemen the Broncos have is out with that scary head shot, Wes Welker and Champ Bailey got banged up and then on one pass play Peyton Manning gets body slammed to the turf like a rag doll in the 1st half and for what? A meaningless preseason game?

The NFL will tell you the primary reason they play them is to evaluate back ups and Rookies and get the veterans some scrimmage time in a game setting prior to opening day. The truth is the reason they play them is based on greed. They’re a useless sideshow to generate more money for the NFL and for the owners who have to pay all there super stars their out of this world salaries. Honestly how much money is enough?

Don’t you think Manning would take a pay cut to avoid playing 2 preseason games or better yet none at all to avoid getting a serious injury in games that don’t count? I believe he would, he certainly wouldn’t be extending his career or his career earnings by receiving a serious injury would he?

I’m for getting rid of them altogether. Maybe the NFL should change the rules to allow the team rosters to be expanded to 63 instead of 53. Let the new players make the team on the practice field at camp, those that can’t make the new 63 man roster who have potential could still make the practice squad. As for the practice squad why not increase the number of players they can have on that roster?

Bottom line, something needs to change, greed is a horrible reason to play 4 meaningless games.

Hillman fumbles a sure 6 points.

Hillman Fumble in the Endzone... GAME OVER!

The Seahawks game confirmed the Broncos running game is in no way ready for the start of the regular season. I didn’t like the draft pick of Ronnie Hillman last year and still don’t. He only has 2 assets in his skill set, speed to get to the outside and he can catch a ball. He needs more skills in his toolbox to be a difference maker in the NFL. The reason they drafted him is because they thought he could become a Darren Sproles prototype.

Hillman doesn’t even come close physically from a strength prospective to Sproles. Below the waist even for his small size Sproles legs are twice the size of Hillman’s.  In the open field Sproles has great speed, can make guys miss and has enough power in his small frame to break tackles and finish runs. Hillman as I see it never will. Hillman between the tackles or in short yardage or goal line situations will never improve either.

One large disadvantage to being small in a big man’s game is something some don’t mention often but it’s important and boy, did it manifest itself in the Seahawks game. Hands… small RB’s have small hands and with small hands it becomes much harder to hold onto a football, especially when a defender is trying to tear it away. Hillman had to 2 fumbles and one was very costly, it amounted to a 12 point swing. The shot he took in the end zone was not a big one; clearly his hand size and hand strength came into play.  

I know big hands can’t always prevent a fumble from occurring but you have to believe that size matters and in most cases that big hands possess the ball better than small ones. After losing C.J. Anderson to a knee injury the pool of RB’s becomes smaller and it puts a lot more pressure on Montee Ball to emerge quickly as the primary RB. Hillman and Knowshon Moreno are nothing more than role players at best.

The one good drive capped by the Wes Welker TD was the only positive on offense for the whole game. I was impressed again by the play of TE Julius Thomas despite the fumble. He’s a big man with good hands and I think he’ll give Joel Dreessen  and Jacob Tamme a run for playing time since neither guy brings much to the table.

The reality is for games that don’t count they still… don’t count but the Seahawks did a great job of exposing the weaknesses of the Broncos. Next week the starters will most likely play the whole 1st half against the Rams. The 3rd game of the preseason is really the biggest test for the first team O and D because the following week they won’t get any playing time. Let’s hope for a positive rebound and no more serious injuries.

Von Miller’s 6 Game Suspension

This is really going to hurt the Broncos Defense and the team as a whole. Nate Irving doesn’t have Miller’s skill set. Without him they lose their best pass rusher and tackling LB. You combine this with the Broncos questionable running game and you have to wonder just how deep the Broncos will go into the playoffs. I’m really disappointed with Miller; somehow I thought he was a far more intelligent person. The show must go on without him however and let's hope good coaching by John Fox and Jack Del Rio can make up for the deficiency.

Broncos needed more D from 2012 Draft

I spent last night with wife at the Astoria Crab Festival and didn’t get home until late and never saw any of the draft coverage on TV. This morning I purposely didn’t read any scouting reports from the Denver Post or the Broncos official website because I’ve learned over the years that they almost always talk up the strengths of players and never the weaknesses. I wanted to have an objective first look at the players they picked before I engaged in any homerism.

I was happy the Broncos took an interior DL with their first pick because it was the biggest position of need on the D. I’ve been reading about Derek Wolfe today and looking at film. He’s big guy 6’5 295 pounds. His size is certainly not going to be a factor he has all the size we need. Here’s the NFL.com scouting report on him and the rest of the players in my blog.

Overview of DL Derek Wolfe: 2nd Round

Wolfe is a big interior lineman who plays very instinctively to be a factor in the run game. He is a slow-moving, pedestrian athlete, but this doesn't define his ability -- he finds other ways to be a factor. He can get overpowered by double teams and will need to continue to develop his technique to not be erased when he faces them. Based off his frame and potential, he has late-round value in the draft.

Strengths

Wolfe is an instinctive player who understands how to engage a lineman, extend his arms and read the flow of the play to move off his blocks. He sees screens well and can work off his man to disrupt plays inside. He can defeat single blocks well and is a decent pass rusher when put in the right scheme where he can slant and stunt to get in good position.

Weaknesses

Wolfe struggles off the ball to get into his slants. He is a slow mover and will not blow back any offensive lineman off the ball. He sometimes relies too heavily on his ability to diagnose, as it appears he is reading the play so long that blockers negate him. Double teams will give him a lot of trouble and he is on his back often when faced with them; NFL teams will see right through that and get an extra hand on him in the run game.

My spin on Wolfe:

I watched his highlight film and was impressed with what I saw. It was his highlight film so he did show him making sacks, forcing fumbles and playing well between the tackles. He certainly has great size and strength, his speed looks average. It must be pointed out he played in a weak Big East Conference. West Virginia and Cincinnati were the 2 best teams last year so the strength of the foes Wolfe faced in his career is not up to the level of some of big conferences.

Everybody says he has a good motor and whatever he lacks in speed and push maybe this will be the intangible that’ll make him a great player for the Broncos.

Overview of QB Brock Osweiler: 2nd Round

Osweiler is an intriguing early-entry prospect out of Arizona State. A good athlete for the position, Osweiler was originally signed to play basketball at Gonzaga before opting to play football at ASU. He has the arm strength to be a first-day pick but hasn't shown the consistency that is characteristic of guys who deserve first-round money.

Strengths

Osweiler has a very deliberate, quick-twitched setup. He slings the ball naturally, and even though he pats the ball before throwing, his release is so compact and effective he isn't hindered. His shining asset is his arm strength; he can hit nearly any NFL-caliber throw at this point in his career. He is a good leader and looks in control in the huddle and on the field. He has the pocket presence of a first-day pick and doesn't go down easily.

Weaknesses

Osweiler had on-the-field judgment issues and isn't reliable to protect the ball from turnovers. It seems as if he starts to get rolling in a game, and the more confidence he builds, the more of a gunslinger mentality he adopts. This severely hinders his play. When under control, early in the game, he is athletic, accurate, and a good game manager. He is likely a developmental prospect who could struggle if forced to play early.

My spin of Osweiler

I don’t understand this pick at all. Osweiler is more of a project than Tebow was. He only had 15 career college starts. His body of work at ASU is suspect and as the scouting reports says he didn’t play smart in too many games. The Broncos should have gone for a CB or LB in this spot and attempted to get a player who could contribute right away on D. He’s definitely a long term project. The Broncos should have just looked to find a veteran free agent QB to back up Manning and used the pick for D instead. This one had to be Elway’s pick.

Overview of RB Ronnie Hillman: 3rd Round

Hillman is an early entry junior to the draft from San Diego State, where he started every game for the Aztecs in the past two years and was first team All-Mountain West. He is a bit undersized but has the speed and quickness to have an immediate impact in the NFL. He likely won't demand the bulk of the carries for an NFL team but is a good "change of pace" guy who does a lot of things well enough to project to make an impact.

Strengths

Hillman relies heavily on his quickness and immediate vision to find a seam to be an effective runner. He has decent speed for his size, but his quickness is his biggest asset. He has a natural feel for how to find daylight and can be patient to wait for a pulling interior lineman to get to the second level. He has a good burst in a short area to make guys miss, and has the quickness to be an effective short-yardage back in the NFL.

Weaknesses

Hillman is a very smooth mover but is not very explosive with the ball in his hands. He likes to feel his way through the line of scrimmage and usually gets to the second level with ease, but he struggles to run with power or elusiveness to make defenders miss and really break for a big gain. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his senior year, but those numbers were a bit skewed thanks to some long runs.

My spin on Hillman:

First of all the guy isn’t 5’9 and 200 pounds, he’s more like 5’7 or 5’8 and 185 to 190 pounds because as we all know in football height and weight for smurfs is always exaggerated. He is very small and not that muscular for his size.

I watched him play a full game against my Wyoming Cowboys last fall. His speed did impress me in that game. Once he gets to the outside (where his strength lies) and gets to the second level not many guys will catch him. I can’t say I know if he’s a good pass receiver or not because in that game I don’t remember it.

Clearly Hillman will be a situational player and not an every down type RB for the Broncos. He isn’t going to be an inside the tackles runner. He may come in on 3rd down and catch passes on short screens. He won’t be an effective blocking back because of his size. Doug Martin from BS was the second best RB with size in the draft and the Broncos couldn’t get him. In the RB rankings Hillman was ranked 10th on most boards so it’s not really a certainty that Hillman will be a big contributor for the Broncos offense other than as a small role player.

In the 4th round the Broncos took Omar Bolden a 5’10 202 pound CB from Arizona State and Philip Blake a 6-3 311-pound C from Baylor. In the 5th round they took Malik Jackson a 6’4 284 pound DT from Tennessee. In the 6th they took Danny Trevathan a 6’ 237 OLB from Kentucky.

Bolden has a knee injury he must overcome. Blake looks to be the best late round pick the Broncos got because he may be able to be a backup Tackle as well as a Center. Jackson is a situational DE and Trevathan while he looked as though he was a great tackler at Kentucky is way too small to be a starting outside LB. He’ll probably play special teams.

In short I’m disappointed the Broncos didn’t go for LB or a CB or even a Safety with the second pick in the second round. The Osweiler pick had to be an Elway invention. Fox surely didn’t want this pick but since Osweiler is supposed to have the best arm strength in the draft, so Elway won out.

The Broncos didn’t draft a WR and Hillman may contribute as a 3rd down back but the Broncos didn’t really improve themselves with any offensive skill players. Maybe Hillman can but he's such a smurf you have to question how good his durability will be in the NFL.

My prediction is Wolfe, Blake and Hillman may be the only guys who make the team by the time they break camp. Osweiler won’t have to prove much, it’s clear he’s a project so he’ll have a spot no matter how he plays. Until the preseason camps I guess there’s not much to add. Let’s hope some of these guys can help us get to the next level.