Brock Osweiler: The Elway 2.0 Project

Brock Osweiler's great arm and quick release isn't enough.

Instead of posting this as a reply to some of the debate I’ve been in the last 3 days about him, I’ve decided to cram it into a blog. Most probably won’t get through the first paragraph of this rant but I’m going to write it and post it anyway because it’s still bugging the holy hell out of me.

The stuff I read said he made questionable decisions in games and didn't always play smart. The trouble is he doesn’t have a large body of work to even judge if he is football smart. I think the Mark Sanchez example is the perfect one; he only played one college season. He played on a good team in a horrible defensive conference and by draft day he was projected to go in the 1st round then eventually the Hall of Fame.

It took a while but his ass and his game have finally showed itself in living color. He couldn’t beat the lowly Broncos team last year could he? Then what happens… irony of ironies the Jets trade for Tim Tebow, go figure? What does that say about an unproven college QB with a very small sample size of a record? And Sanchez’s resume at first glance makes Osweiler’s look like a chump. I know he’s not a chump I’m just saying.

All the arm strength in the world, all the pretty long balls in the world, all the quick release throws in the world don’t mean squat if that guy isn’t a winner. In clutch time I’d rather have a warrior who wins games ugly than a strong armed QB who loses pretty. The fact is losing is never pretty, it’s always about winning. So it’s extremely infuriating and nonsensical that we traded away a “Project” for another even more unproven “Project” and call that a brilliant personnel move or still dumber building for the “future.”

In this case Elway’s ego took over. He forgot why he signed Peyton Manning apparently. As I’ve said about a dozen times in the last 3 days as I understood it we signed him, paid him the big bucks and gave up cap room money so Manning could come in and win a championship NOW. Manning wasn’t hired to help rebuild the Broncos, it was to win NOW.

The better move in this draft was to sign a player who could contribute immediately with the 2nd round pick for that reason. If Elway thought that Caleb Hanie wasn’t going to cut it I don’t understand why he wasted the time, money and the roster spot when he wasn’t sold on him. Even so the Broncos would have been better off by signing some other cheap experienced free agent QB rather than wasting a pick grooming a 3 year “Project.” Hanie could carry the team for the short term if the worse thing happens to Manning. He isn’t going to be the next big thing we all know that but even he could have carried on for a half season if Manning got hurt. Then the following year the Broncos could have focused solely on getting a replacement either through free agency or the draft.

By the way fans, had we not drafted Osweiler guess what? They’ll be more QB’s available in the draft and free agency next year. Osweiler is not the first nor will he be the last great young “Project” in the history of the game

Regardless, the whole ffing strategy behind signing Manning was to win NOW. Not to sign a guy who’ll set on the bench for 3 years. Yes we need a back up for Manning but we also need every good player we can get that can tackle, cover, block, catch a pass or run well with the ball today not tomorrow. Osweiler does none of that, he detracts from it in fact and in this bid to win a championship NOW if that’s what we want we have to have players on the field that can help us do that NOW!

Broncos needed more D from 2012 Draft

I spent last night with wife at the Astoria Crab Festival and didn’t get home until late and never saw any of the draft coverage on TV. This morning I purposely didn’t read any scouting reports from the Denver Post or the Broncos official website because I’ve learned over the years that they almost always talk up the strengths of players and never the weaknesses. I wanted to have an objective first look at the players they picked before I engaged in any homerism.

I was happy the Broncos took an interior DL with their first pick because it was the biggest position of need on the D. I’ve been reading about Derek Wolfe today and looking at film. He’s big guy 6’5 295 pounds. His size is certainly not going to be a factor he has all the size we need. Here’s the NFL.com scouting report on him and the rest of the players in my blog.

Overview of DL Derek Wolfe: 2nd Round

Wolfe is a big interior lineman who plays very instinctively to be a factor in the run game. He is a slow-moving, pedestrian athlete, but this doesn't define his ability -- he finds other ways to be a factor. He can get overpowered by double teams and will need to continue to develop his technique to not be erased when he faces them. Based off his frame and potential, he has late-round value in the draft.

Strengths

Wolfe is an instinctive player who understands how to engage a lineman, extend his arms and read the flow of the play to move off his blocks. He sees screens well and can work off his man to disrupt plays inside. He can defeat single blocks well and is a decent pass rusher when put in the right scheme where he can slant and stunt to get in good position.

Weaknesses

Wolfe struggles off the ball to get into his slants. He is a slow mover and will not blow back any offensive lineman off the ball. He sometimes relies too heavily on his ability to diagnose, as it appears he is reading the play so long that blockers negate him. Double teams will give him a lot of trouble and he is on his back often when faced with them; NFL teams will see right through that and get an extra hand on him in the run game.

My spin on Wolfe:

I watched his highlight film and was impressed with what I saw. It was his highlight film so he did show him making sacks, forcing fumbles and playing well between the tackles. He certainly has great size and strength, his speed looks average. It must be pointed out he played in a weak Big East Conference. West Virginia and Cincinnati were the 2 best teams last year so the strength of the foes Wolfe faced in his career is not up to the level of some of big conferences.

Everybody says he has a good motor and whatever he lacks in speed and push maybe this will be the intangible that’ll make him a great player for the Broncos.

Overview of QB Brock Osweiler: 2nd Round

Osweiler is an intriguing early-entry prospect out of Arizona State. A good athlete for the position, Osweiler was originally signed to play basketball at Gonzaga before opting to play football at ASU. He has the arm strength to be a first-day pick but hasn't shown the consistency that is characteristic of guys who deserve first-round money.

Strengths

Osweiler has a very deliberate, quick-twitched setup. He slings the ball naturally, and even though he pats the ball before throwing, his release is so compact and effective he isn't hindered. His shining asset is his arm strength; he can hit nearly any NFL-caliber throw at this point in his career. He is a good leader and looks in control in the huddle and on the field. He has the pocket presence of a first-day pick and doesn't go down easily.

Weaknesses

Osweiler had on-the-field judgment issues and isn't reliable to protect the ball from turnovers. It seems as if he starts to get rolling in a game, and the more confidence he builds, the more of a gunslinger mentality he adopts. This severely hinders his play. When under control, early in the game, he is athletic, accurate, and a good game manager. He is likely a developmental prospect who could struggle if forced to play early.

My spin of Osweiler

I don’t understand this pick at all. Osweiler is more of a project than Tebow was. He only had 15 career college starts. His body of work at ASU is suspect and as the scouting reports says he didn’t play smart in too many games. The Broncos should have gone for a CB or LB in this spot and attempted to get a player who could contribute right away on D. He’s definitely a long term project. The Broncos should have just looked to find a veteran free agent QB to back up Manning and used the pick for D instead. This one had to be Elway’s pick.

Overview of RB Ronnie Hillman: 3rd Round

Hillman is an early entry junior to the draft from San Diego State, where he started every game for the Aztecs in the past two years and was first team All-Mountain West. He is a bit undersized but has the speed and quickness to have an immediate impact in the NFL. He likely won't demand the bulk of the carries for an NFL team but is a good "change of pace" guy who does a lot of things well enough to project to make an impact.

Strengths

Hillman relies heavily on his quickness and immediate vision to find a seam to be an effective runner. He has decent speed for his size, but his quickness is his biggest asset. He has a natural feel for how to find daylight and can be patient to wait for a pulling interior lineman to get to the second level. He has a good burst in a short area to make guys miss, and has the quickness to be an effective short-yardage back in the NFL.

Weaknesses

Hillman is a very smooth mover but is not very explosive with the ball in his hands. He likes to feel his way through the line of scrimmage and usually gets to the second level with ease, but he struggles to run with power or elusiveness to make defenders miss and really break for a big gain. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his senior year, but those numbers were a bit skewed thanks to some long runs.

My spin on Hillman:

First of all the guy isn’t 5’9 and 200 pounds, he’s more like 5’7 or 5’8 and 185 to 190 pounds because as we all know in football height and weight for smurfs is always exaggerated. He is very small and not that muscular for his size.

I watched him play a full game against my Wyoming Cowboys last fall. His speed did impress me in that game. Once he gets to the outside (where his strength lies) and gets to the second level not many guys will catch him. I can’t say I know if he’s a good pass receiver or not because in that game I don’t remember it.

Clearly Hillman will be a situational player and not an every down type RB for the Broncos. He isn’t going to be an inside the tackles runner. He may come in on 3rd down and catch passes on short screens. He won’t be an effective blocking back because of his size. Doug Martin from BS was the second best RB with size in the draft and the Broncos couldn’t get him. In the RB rankings Hillman was ranked 10th on most boards so it’s not really a certainty that Hillman will be a big contributor for the Broncos offense other than as a small role player.

In the 4th round the Broncos took Omar Bolden a 5’10 202 pound CB from Arizona State and Philip Blake a 6-3 311-pound C from Baylor. In the 5th round they took Malik Jackson a 6’4 284 pound DT from Tennessee. In the 6th they took Danny Trevathan a 6’ 237 OLB from Kentucky.

Bolden has a knee injury he must overcome. Blake looks to be the best late round pick the Broncos got because he may be able to be a backup Tackle as well as a Center. Jackson is a situational DE and Trevathan while he looked as though he was a great tackler at Kentucky is way too small to be a starting outside LB. He’ll probably play special teams.

In short I’m disappointed the Broncos didn’t go for LB or a CB or even a Safety with the second pick in the second round. The Osweiler pick had to be an Elway invention. Fox surely didn’t want this pick but since Osweiler is supposed to have the best arm strength in the draft, so Elway won out.

The Broncos didn’t draft a WR and Hillman may contribute as a 3rd down back but the Broncos didn’t really improve themselves with any offensive skill players. Maybe Hillman can but he's such a smurf you have to question how good his durability will be in the NFL.

My prediction is Wolfe, Blake and Hillman may be the only guys who make the team by the time they break camp. Osweiler won’t have to prove much, it’s clear he’s a project so he’ll have a spot no matter how he plays. Until the preseason camps I guess there’s not much to add. Let’s hope some of these guys can help us get to the next level.

Broncos should go all D in 2012 Draft

In respond to the Woody Paige column in the Denver Post on 4/15/12 entitled:

Don't mock this Broncos draft of 6 sure starters 

 Woody may be right about not taking a Defense Lineman in the first round but it can’t be denied that it’s a big position of need. If the Broncos don’t go DL in the 1st round then Alabama LB Dont`a Hightower would be a nice pick up for the Broncos because after Von Miller you have an aging DJ Williams, Joe Mays and Wesley Woodyard none of whom may be the answer. I hope Mays improves, in spots he played well and in others he didn’t. DJ had a nice comeback season and like Mays played well early but late in the season disappeared at times as did Mays.

No matter what the Broncos should nab the best defensive player available in the first round. They need help at every position on D. They could use another good Corner and Safety so that shouldn’t be ruled out. In the later rounds the Broncos could use another WR, a good receiving TE and maybe a Guard if Chris Kuper isn’t at full strength by opening day. It’s good news he’s recovering nicely from the knee surgery but one never knows how well he’ll be able to play once he comes back.

As for the RB’s situation I’ve been one of the few who’s pointed out the real weakness the Broncos have at that position since the season ended. Knowshon Moreno is a bust, a goner and while Willis McGahee had an amazing year he’s now 30 years old with a banged up body and a knee that’s been a chronic problem. Can he last another full season with that knee at his age? I don’t question his desire to do so he’s a warrior but I think its wishful thinking to believe that he’ll put up the same numbers as last year.

If Manning’s offense has any hope of succeeding in Denver he must have at least one quality RB to execute it, one that can run between the tackles and be a reliable pass catcher for him if nothing is open down field. Without some threat of a running game Manning isn’t going to be as effective in the passing game.  

Personally I prefer RB’s with more size, strength and average to better than average speed than drafting speedy super smurf RB’s. More often than not they just end up being situational players.

Oregon running back LaMichael James is listed at 5’9” and 195. Both are probably inflated numbers. He’s more like 5’8” or 5’7” 180 or 185 pounds. James had a fine career at Oregon. He’s a great Receiver and a fantastic punt returner. But once he gets to the NFL I wonder if his little body can be effective as an every down RB or one who can run between the tackles. He won’t be facing the weak defenses he played against in the Pac 12.

Ronnie Hillman of San Diego State another Super Smurf at 5’10” and listed at 190. He is fleet of foot but no bigger than Yoda.

More than likely Hillman and probably James are both going to end up as role players and not starters sort of in the Reggie Bush mold. Of the 2 James would be the better pick because he does catch the ball well. James may suprize me and put up some big numbers but those numbers will probably be as Receiver and a Punt Returner and not a RB.

Utah State's Robert Turbin 5’10” 222 recently had a work out in Denver but you have to wonder he can make the jump from another weak and meek conference like the Western Athletic Conference to the much bigger and faster NFL. Of the 3 mentioned in Woody’s piece this guy seems to have more muscle mass. He may not have the speed of James and Hillman but has a body better suited to play inside the tackles.

RB Doug Martin may be the best RB in the draft.

RB Doug Martin of Boise State might be a better pick than all 3 of these guys if he’s available. He’s a smurf too but has that compact massive frame that can run with power inside the tackles.

I just think after Trent Richardson there’s a big drop off in the level of talent when it comes to an every down smash mouth runner in combination with being a good Receiver.

The draft isn’t far away, soon enough we’ll know. Hopefully they’ll be guys that can contribute immediately because we do have some big holes to fill.