Ravens Game Will Speak Volumes About 2013 Broncos Team

I watched both the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals Preseason Games but nothing that happened in them inspired me to write anything. The 3 most notable performances in the 4 games were turned in by Julius Thomas, Duke Ihenacho and Brock Osweiler. So if I could sum up the Broncos 2013 Preseason campaign and predict the outcome of the Baltimore Ravens Game and the early strengths and weaknesses of the team I’d say this.

ON OFFENSE

I think almost everyone would agree the Broncos are going to be very adept at airing the ball out. As long as Peyton Manning doesn’t get injured and the Offense Line can protect him, the Broncos should be able to move the ball up and down between the 20’s. On paper he has some of the best Receivers in the game to chuck the ball to in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. Julius Thomas at Tight End is an exciting prospect; he was one of the few new players on offense in the preseason that stood out and he’s won the starting job.

The challenge will be how well Manning and the offense can score consistently in the Red Zone. If it can be done through the air great but if it must be done on the ground can they punch the ball in the end zone inside the 20 or inside the 5 yard line?

LT Ryan Clady, LG Zane Beadles and RT Orlando Franklin the 3 strongest OL for the Broncos should be fine to block in the running and passing game. The question will be will new Center Manny Ramirez and RG Louis Vasquez come together and make them a line that can play smash mouth or an aerial circus type of game?

With Willis McGahee no longer in the backfield I’m just not convinced they’ve found a suitable replacement for him. He run with power between the tackles and could steamroll defenders in short yardage situations. In the preseason the only runner that exhibited any tackle breaking ability was C.J. Anderson in the first game and he’s out with a knee injury.

Montee Ball didn’t get a lot of carries in the preseason and didn’t really prove if he’s that kind of a bruising runner or not. At Wisconsin he put up some big numbers but sometimes RB’s who’ve had success in college don’t translate that success to the NFL. The reason is simple, the defenders in the NFL are stronger, faster and better tacklers than the ones they faced at the college level.

I’m not down on Ball at all and this doesn’t mean I’ve written him off before the season even starts. I think it’s possible that John Fox used him sparingly on purpose to save him for the regular season. Let’s hope that is the case and once he gets his start against the Ravens he’ll showcase his skill set and be the primary RB for the Broncos.

As for Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno they can be nothing more than role players. I’ve written in pass blogs why I believe this is to be the case so I won’t elaborate on these 2. 

ON DEFENSE

It can’t be overstated enough how bad the 6 game suspension of Von Miller will hurt the Broncos. If you combine this with the off season loss of Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos best pass rushing defensive lineman, it’s almost a back breaker.

In Miller’s place Nate Irving and the long in the tooth Shaun Phillips will back up Irving in attempt to hold down the fort at the Strongside Linebacker position in his absence. Neither are as remotely as talented as Miller as pass rushers or pass coverage guys. Wesley Woodyard starts at MLB and Danny Trevathan plays the WLB. Woodyard is good tackler but Trevathan had a few misses in the preseason games I watched.

On the Defensive Line if the Broncos play the straight 4/3 Defense it’s Derek Wolfe at LDE, Kevin Vickerson at DT, Terrance Knighton at NT and Robert Ayers at RDE. Wolfe is recovering from his neck injury in the preseason and that’s good news because at this moment he’s the best pass rusher in this group. 2013 1st round draft choice NT Sylvester Williams hasn’t cracked the starting line up yet. Shaun Phillips will back up Ayers at RDE.

The Broncos defensive backfield may be the single biggest roadblock to a Super Bowl. Champ Bailey, one of the best to ever play the game and a certain Hall of Famer is now in his 15^th NFL Season. While he still has football in him he doesn’t have the speed and cover skills he once had in his prime. Its unfortunate the Broncos couldn’t move him to Safety but since they don’t really have a CB that can perform better he keeps his spot on the left side. In the last 2 years Champ has been beaten for more big plays and Touchdowns than at any other time in his career. He’s backed up by Chris Harris and newly signed free agent Quentin Jammer from the Chargers.

Former Philadelphia Eagles CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was signed as a free agent this off season and starts at the other Corner. He’s an improvement but his last 2 years were relatively unproductive in Philly. In that time frame he had only 3 INT’s and the Eagles D as a whole was near the bottom of the league in every category. His backup is Tony Carter.  

Rahim Moore returns at Free Safety after having one of the worse games a player could ever have in the Ravens game last year. Let’s hope he’s regained his confidence. One of the big surprises of the preseason was how well Strong Safety Duke Ihenacho played in the preseason, so well in fact he displaced Mike Adams. This is good news because he can’t play any worst than Adams did in many key situations last year.

History has proven this time and again.

Summary:

I believe the Broncos should be able to walk away with the AFC West Title based on their offensive passing capabilities alone. Going in I’m very concerned about the RB situation and who will emerge as the go to guy. Montee Ball has to be the guy and come playoff time he’ll have to have established himself and have the game in his toolbox needed to take them to the next level. I just don’t see Hillman or Moreno being the guys they can count on in crunch time. They’ll have to score a lot of points to win games because the Broncos D isn’t as good as the one they had last year.

More concerning is how well the Defense plays early. Wolfe is the best Pass Rusher and Woodyard is the best Tackler after that you have to wonder just how well the Broncos can play against the run or pass. The Broncos secondary came apart in the Ravens game last year and it’s uncertain they’ve really improved their personnel all that much this season.

The X Factor is they have John Fox and Jack Del Rio as HC and DC respectively. With their coaching skills hopefully they’ll out scheme opponents and coach up the weaker players on D. It’ll be the key to whether or not they get out of the first round of the playoffs and make a Super Bowl run.

Thankfully we’re only 3 days away from the first step to the beginning of the journey. GO BRONCOS!!    

Seahawks Slaughter the Broncos in PSG #2

Not to sound like a broken record but why is the NFL still thinking 4 preseason games are a good idea? Derek Wolfe, one the most promising young Defense Linemen the Broncos have is out with that scary head shot, Wes Welker and Champ Bailey got banged up and then on one pass play Peyton Manning gets body slammed to the turf like a rag doll in the 1st half and for what? A meaningless preseason game?

The NFL will tell you the primary reason they play them is to evaluate back ups and Rookies and get the veterans some scrimmage time in a game setting prior to opening day. The truth is the reason they play them is based on greed. They’re a useless sideshow to generate more money for the NFL and for the owners who have to pay all there super stars their out of this world salaries. Honestly how much money is enough?

Don’t you think Manning would take a pay cut to avoid playing 2 preseason games or better yet none at all to avoid getting a serious injury in games that don’t count? I believe he would, he certainly wouldn’t be extending his career or his career earnings by receiving a serious injury would he?

I’m for getting rid of them altogether. Maybe the NFL should change the rules to allow the team rosters to be expanded to 63 instead of 53. Let the new players make the team on the practice field at camp, those that can’t make the new 63 man roster who have potential could still make the practice squad. As for the practice squad why not increase the number of players they can have on that roster?

Bottom line, something needs to change, greed is a horrible reason to play 4 meaningless games.

Hillman fumbles a sure 6 points.

Hillman Fumble in the Endzone... GAME OVER!

The Seahawks game confirmed the Broncos running game is in no way ready for the start of the regular season. I didn’t like the draft pick of Ronnie Hillman last year and still don’t. He only has 2 assets in his skill set, speed to get to the outside and he can catch a ball. He needs more skills in his toolbox to be a difference maker in the NFL. The reason they drafted him is because they thought he could become a Darren Sproles prototype.

Hillman doesn’t even come close physically from a strength prospective to Sproles. Below the waist even for his small size Sproles legs are twice the size of Hillman’s.  In the open field Sproles has great speed, can make guys miss and has enough power in his small frame to break tackles and finish runs. Hillman as I see it never will. Hillman between the tackles or in short yardage or goal line situations will never improve either.

One large disadvantage to being small in a big man’s game is something some don’t mention often but it’s important and boy, did it manifest itself in the Seahawks game. Hands… small RB’s have small hands and with small hands it becomes much harder to hold onto a football, especially when a defender is trying to tear it away. Hillman had to 2 fumbles and one was very costly, it amounted to a 12 point swing. The shot he took in the end zone was not a big one; clearly his hand size and hand strength came into play.  

I know big hands can’t always prevent a fumble from occurring but you have to believe that size matters and in most cases that big hands possess the ball better than small ones. After losing C.J. Anderson to a knee injury the pool of RB’s becomes smaller and it puts a lot more pressure on Montee Ball to emerge quickly as the primary RB. Hillman and Knowshon Moreno are nothing more than role players at best.

The one good drive capped by the Wes Welker TD was the only positive on offense for the whole game. I was impressed again by the play of TE Julius Thomas despite the fumble. He’s a big man with good hands and I think he’ll give Joel Dreessen  and Jacob Tamme a run for playing time since neither guy brings much to the table.

The reality is for games that don’t count they still… don’t count but the Seahawks did a great job of exposing the weaknesses of the Broncos. Next week the starters will most likely play the whole 1st half against the Rams. The 3rd game of the preseason is really the biggest test for the first team O and D because the following week they won’t get any playing time. Let’s hope for a positive rebound and no more serious injuries.

Von Miller’s 6 Game Suspension

This is really going to hurt the Broncos Defense and the team as a whole. Nate Irving doesn’t have Miller’s skill set. Without him they lose their best pass rusher and tackling LB. You combine this with the Broncos questionable running game and you have to wonder just how deep the Broncos will go into the playoffs. I’m really disappointed with Miller; somehow I thought he was a far more intelligent person. The show must go on without him however and let's hope good coaching by John Fox and Jack Del Rio can make up for the deficiency.

The Case for Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy may be the key to a Super Bowl win for the Broncos.

There’s 2 prevailing theories come draft day, the first and most predominate for most teams is drafting the best player available. The second is drafting by position. The Broncos should consider drafting by position this season because in my mind without better players at key positions they won’t make the big jump in the playoffs or the Super Bowl. The need for better defensive players is critical for the Broncos, but I think they need to go RB or CB first in the 2013 NFL Draft. Conventional wisdom says draft the best available but is that true this year?

If the Broncos are depending on Willis McGahee to get through a 16 game season and the playoffs they're making a big mistake. McGahee has been one of the great comeback warrior stories in the NFL. The brutal knee injury he had before he came into the NFL was as bad as any ever and at 31 years old, that’s ancient considering his knee. 

As a recent interview with John Elway indicates Knowshon Moreno is the #3 RB behind Ronnie Hillman. So if Hillman is the Broncos primary backup the Broncos can't expect to go deep in the playoffs with him as the starter should McGahee hail out. Elway says he'll draft for immediate impact but I can't believe that a RB wouldn't be high on the list. Maybe the Broncos are looking to trade Moreno and/or pick up a RB in free agency but I’m convinced that depending on McGahee to remain healthy come playoff time is a risky proposition.

The O is in good shape except at RB. They’ll score points but in crunch time they’re going to need a good tough between the tackles, 3rd & short and a goal line RB late in the season.

The Broncos need added depth at DB, DL and LB. The DB situation is far from settled. Champ Bailey is not the same CB he was in his prime, the last 2 years his speed and coverage skills have started to erode. They should move him to Safety and look for a speedy young cover guy to fill his Corner spot. He may not like it but if he’s being honest with himself he knows this is what is best for the team.

But let’s get back to the RB situation for a minute, if the whole idea of signing Peyton Manning was to win the Super Bowl “NOW” I doubt very seriously that with his small window they can do it without one. Too many forget that part of the reason Manning was so successful with the Colts was because they had Edgerrin James in the backfield. Without James in his early years he’s hard to say if Manning would have put up the kind of stats and wins had he not been his teammate.

In his prime he was one of the best in the game. James was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 1999 and was All-Pro 4 times. James left Indy in 2005 as their all time leading rusher with 9,226 yards. He had 64 rushing TD’s and 11 receiving TD’s in his career at Indy. In his 11 year career he racked up 12, 246 yards on the ground and 3,364 yards through the air. Super Bowls are won with Defense but you don’t see many even getting there without a quality RB.

So if there’s an opportunity to grab Eddie Lacy from Alabama in the 1st round or make a trade for him the Broncos should jump on him. There are question marks about his receiving and pass blocking abilities because he’ll improve that part of his game but his ground game is tough and solid. He’s just the kind of bruising tough yards RB the Broncos need. IMO he’ll be the biggest impact player the Broncos could ask for if they get him in the draft. It's doubtful we have a shot at him but we can hope there's a way to make it happen. If not Lacy they need to look elsewhere.

The Law Of Karma turns on the Denver Broncos

Manning walks off the field a loser after throwing 3 INT's against the Ravens.

I’m still grinding, mourning and angry over the Broncos playoff loss today, it’s impossible not to. I know I shouldn’t but these opportunities just don’t come along every day. When making the comparisons about some of the worst losses the Broncos have ever had this one clearly is lower on the list but the pain is no less devastating.

It took the Broncos 38 years to win their first Super Bowl and it was on their 4th try. That’s why when you get into a rosy position and lose it completely knocks the wind out of you. This one hurt bad, but it doesn’t compare to 1996.

The Jacksonville loss in the 96 playoffs is the worst ever. 13-3, best AFC regular season record, home field advantage throughout and playing a team that was lucky to be there. After the loss there was talk that John Elway might retire and who would have blamed him. That season just like this one was set up for them to win a Super Bowl and again they were denied. As we learned later it would have given them 3 championships in a row had they advanced and won in 96.

The Redskins loss in the Super Bowl XXII in 1988 was the #1 most devastating until the Broncos lost to Jacksonville but now it’s #2 on my list. The Broncos had a better all around team than the Redskins that year. Not unlike the Ravens game the Corners and Safety’s helped give away that game too. Back then it was Tony Lilly instead of Champ Bailey and Rahim Moore who gave up big plays. Elway had a horrible day and the running game was a joke. The Defense let a scrub RB and a scrub QB torch them big time. Tim Smith and Doug Williams to that point in their careers had never put up that big of numbers and even following that game would never repeat the performances they had that day against the Broncos.

To be sure the losses to the Cowboys, Giants and 49ers hurt in the other SB’s but the sting wasn’t as bad because the Broncos didn’t match up well against any of those teams.

After a few days to digest this latest disaster I have to move what I consider the #3 worst loss to #4 and say that the loss Saturday surpasses it. The old #3 was the Jake the Fake meltdown in the 2006 AFC Championship Game against the Steelers. The Broncos had just come off a big win against the Brady lead Patriots (The best team in the playoffs that year) at home the week before in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Beating the Steelers should have been an easier assignment if not for the poor play of the most important position player on the team, QB Jake Plummer.

So, today as I set here grinding I think to myself, this time we supposedly had the best QB in the game to make a Super Bowl run and we lost? Plummer’s bad game is way easier to forgive than Manning’s lousy performance because of his past resume. All be it a great regular season resume, his post season resume stinks.

I personally believe in a Higher Power greater than myself and I also believe in "The Law of Karma."

Short cuts, hired guns and throwing out a player that lead you to your second playoff win in 12 years like so much trash is definitely bad Karma. I’m not saying that Tebow could have taken this team to new heights this year with his skill set being far less than that of Manning’s, probably not. Still...Tebow deserved better, he's a winner and winners don’t always do it pretty. I’ll take winning ugly over losing pretty anytime. Check that, there is no such thing as losing pretty is there?

The other irony or should I say injustice about this epic loss Saturday is that last year when the Broncos got creamed by the Patriots nearly every media type and Broncos Fan out there blamed it on not having a good enough QB.

Today after this loss, it’s: Champ got beat twice for TD’s, Moore lost the game because he didn’t play deep enough on one play, the pass rush was non-existent, losing Moreno hurt, Kuper didn’t play well, Prater missed a kick he normally would have made, the refs made bad calls, the Broncos had 3 timeouts and 31 seconds on the clock in the 4th Q and didn’t try to score, Fox and McCoy called to conservative of a game etc.

Then… As an afterthought: "Oh yeah, Peyton Manning didn’t play well either." Instead of being on the top of the list he’s on the bottom because after all this was a “Team Loss.” I don’t disagree with the “team loss” mantra but Manning should be shouldering way more blame than he has to this point. HE not Mike McCoy was calling the majority of the plays on the field. 3 INT’s, 2 resulting in scores and that God awful throw in over time. The stupid throw in OT made all the throws Tebow has made in his career look pretty damn good. Many didn’t really say it was a team loss after the Broncos got slaughtered by the Patriots last year did they? Oh no, it was that lousy Tim Tebow's fault, if we’d of had a QB like Manning or any other QB for that matter the outcome would have been different right?

The bottom line is Manning should have been the ONE person on the team that made the plays necessary for the Broncos to win a close game, period, end of story. I can’t see it any other way. The Law of Karma as it turns out works both ways, hopefully the Broncos can recover and get the good Karma back next season. It's going to be a very long off season but as always I'll be hopeful that the Broncos can climb the ladder and make a run to the big show. That is all.

The D is the Key, Manning is not...

Matt Schaub torched the Broncos D for 290 yards and 4 TD's.

I guess I'm not really shocked to see so many Broncos Fans go after the S's after the loss to the Houston Texans but don't leave out the CB's, the LB's and the DL too. I said before they signed Manning that the D wasn't going to be good enough and complained over and over that they needed help at Safety, Linebacker and DL position.

The only quality player we have on D as of Week 4 is Von Miller and all the rest should be subjected to sever criticism including Elvis Dumervil and Champ Bailey. Mike Adams and Rahim Moore won't get the job done for sure but neither will Justin Bannon and Kevin Vickerson who've not been a factor thus far. Since no pass rush exists it really exposes the weakness we have in the backfield and that includes Champ. This D is far from being good enough to be a playoff caliber team as it stands today. The tackling in the last 2 games reminds me of how the Broncos played early last year, it's beyond horrible.

I've noticed in the pointed attacks against the rest of the team that Peyton Manning is completely absolved of any blame for the Broncos last 2 losses when in fact he has just as much responsibility for them as the rest of the team. Blaming the play calling is BS; Manning is not playing well period. He's had a hard time throwing the deep ball with any consistently and in his excitement to run the hurry up offense, his expertise supposedly, he's not making the right calls at the line of scrimmage which he is responsible for in the hurry up. IMO it may be time to rethink the whole idea of running the hurry up and slow the game down because he and his minions are not executing it well enough to be a threat.

That said Manning has thrown horrible passes and into double coverage far too many times. Frankly he's very lucky he doesn't have more than the 3 INT's he's already put up. He's been sacked 8 times already and he's not getting rid of the ball quickly enough in the pocket. When he's been on target then the set of Receivers he's throwing to can't seem to catch a cold. Stokley seems to be the only player who doesn't drop many but he's no deep threat and can't stretch the field.

I don't want to be right in fact I hate it but thus far everything I predicted about the Manning signing and how the Broncos would perform has come to pass in the early going. Manning can't rescue a team who has a below average D and very small selection of skilled players on O to help him win.

The idea that Manning was going to the last piece of the puzzle for the Broncos to win a Super Bowl was ridiculous homeristic thinking. Hell, the Oakland Raiders are favored by 6.5 points and we're playing them at home for God Sakes. It's a little early to hit the panic button but to say this Raiders game is a must win for the Broncos might be dramatic but it is a must win. It doesn't get any easier with the New England Patriots on deck and the rest of schedule is no easier. I hope they can turn it around this week because if they lose the early hole they've dug for themselves may be too much from them to dig out of.

Turnaround on Defense Starts With Good Tackling

I can’t remember in awhile maybe since the 2005 season a better group of tacklers than this current Broncos team, at least in the last 4 games. I hope it continues because since that season the Broncos have been one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL. Recently the Ravens, Steelers and the Eagles D’s (maybe not this year, but in the not too distant past) to name a few have had great players that could tackle. Good D no matter what the scheme always starts with good tackling.

On the 2005 team for the Broncos Al Wilson and DJ Williams were both great tackling LB’s. As I remember Keith Burns was still on the team and although he wasn’t a starting LB on special teams he made his presence felt. Champ Bailey was 6 years younger then, was a fierce tackler and even though John Lynch was in the twilight of his career he could still bring the wood. The DL a long and terrible deficiency for the Broncos even on the 05 team doesn’t have any real standouts. Some might say Trevor Pryce could be but wasn’t nearly as effective as he was early in his career.

If you go back in time Randy Gradishar was arguably the best tackler of all-time. I’ve said since his retirement he should have gone in on the first ballot and been the 1st Broncos player in the Hall of Fame but that’s another rant.

Karl Mecklenberg is another guy while in his prime didn’t miss many. Say what you will about him but Bill Romanoski was one of the greatest overachievers of all time and was a hell of tackler for the Broncos. John Moberly had some good years too. Steve Atwater and Dennis Smith may have been the biggest hitters of all-time in the backfield for the Broncos along with Champ.

Getting back to today and I know I’m not telling you something you don’t already know. Von Miller is the most exciting player we’ve had on D in years. This guy knows how to tackle and doesn’t miss if he’s in range and when he gets there he brings speed, power and thump.

I’m also sure you’d all agree in large part he has to be considered the reason for the turnaround on D. What he lacks in coverage skills and sometimes not staying home in the running game (which he’ll get better at) he more than makes up for with his tackling, pass rushing ability and fierce determination. It’s amazing how one guy with his intensity level help’s inspire the other players on D with lesser talent to play at a higher level than they might not normally attain.

In the Chargers game last week the tackling and the pass rush was suburb by the whole team. A few running plays got away from them but almost every time a Charger players either run or caught a ball the first guy usually made the tackle and Rivers of course got knocked around too. It’s amazing how Miller gets a lot of attention right now but I didn’t know until I looked at the box score that DJ lead the team with 10 tackles. DJ finally realizes he’s got some good backup in Miller and has stepped up his game. Even MLB Mays has been tackling well and had some big stops. I almost forgot to mention Wesley Woodyard he leads the team in tackles.

It just refreshing to see a Broncos box score were 3 LB’s lead the team in tackles. It means that most of the running plays and the short passing game plays are being effectively stopped. It’s certainly better than seeing Champ or Brian Dawkins lead the stat sheet.  

Dumervil’s recovery can’t go unmentioned too he’s come back strong. Even Carter and Goodman tackled in the Chargers game. Bunkley has contributed too. Dawkins although long in the tooth can bring it too once in a while.

How many games have we watched over the last 5 years where on one play the Broncos would have 2 or sometimes 3 whiffs before a tackle was finally made?

Von Miller doesn’t miss, he knows how to make a text book tackle and thankfully it’s spread to the rest of the team. It’ll be interesting to see if Adrian Peterson starts for the Vikings this week; if he does it’ll be a good test to see if our D can shut down the best RB in the game. One thing is certain, offensive wins games but defense wins championships. Is this team capable of it? I don’t know but the Broncos are going to be a fun team to watch the last 1/3 of the season.